Plant Nutrients for the Future – is it the nutrients or the system that’s the issue?

This may not sound like the most charged topic in the transformation of our food system, but without plant nutrients there are no harvests, and without harvests, no food. Moreover, without a sustainable means of supplying nutrients to our agricultural systems, there can be no sustainable food production.

The Breakthrough That Enabled Modern Agriculture

For a long time, plant nutrients have been so readily available and so deeply embedded in modern agriculture that they have, in many ways, become invisible.

To understand why, we must look back to the breakthrough of the Haber–Bosch process and the introduction of mineral fertilizers in the early twentieth century. By fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere, it became possible to produce synthetic plant nutrients – mineral fertilizers. This, in turn, created possibilities for an entirely new era in food production. Plant nutrients became widely accessible, relatively easy to manage, and adaptable to agricultural systems undergoing rapid technological advancement.

It is difficult to overstate the significance of this development. Modern mineral fertilizers are among the most critical prerequisites for feeding a growing global population. In many respects, it represents one of the most consequential innovations in human history. For that very reason, we must also be willing to confront their drawbacks – and the profound paradoxes inherent in our current approach to plant nutrients.

The Solution That Also Created New Problems

To understand the role of plant nutrients in the food system, we must also understand the systems that surround them. The three primary components of mineral fertilizers – nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium – are used in vast quantities worldwide. According to the FAO, global consumption of synthetic fertilizers reached just over 190 million metric tons of nutrients in 2023. More than half of the world’s population could not be sustained at current levels without synthetic nitrogen. These are staggering figures. And this level of use does not come without cost.

Ammonia forms the foundation of nitrogen production. Its manufacture accounts for approximately 2 percent of global final energy consumption and 1.3 percent of total CO₂ emissions from the energy system. According to the Ammonia Technology Roadmap (2021) from the International Energy Agency (IEA), as much as 70 percent of global ammonia production is used to produce plant nutrients. Plant nutrients, therefore, are not merely an agricultural concern – they are also fundamentally an issue of energy use and climate impact.

Nitrogen production, as noted, carries a clear climate burden. Phosphorus and potassium, by contrast, present a different set of challenges, particularly as they are derived from finite and strategically significant resources. Phosphorus, for example, is extracted from phosphate rock – widely regarded as a limited resource – and has been repeatedly classified by the European Union over the past decade as a critical raw material. Potassium, which is primarily sourced from potash production, lacks an economically viable substitute in agriculture. Both are largely produced in regions often affected by geopolitical tensions.

Plant nutrients, therefore, are no longer solely a matter of sustainability; they are also deeply tied to issues of resource dependency and security of supply.

Fortunately, plant nutrients are not introduced into agricultural systems only in synthetic form. Significant quantities of nutrients exist in organic flows around us – such as manure, crop residues, wastewater, food waste and other side streams. These flows are complex, and their exact volumes are difficult to quantify; reliable estimates remain limited.

But there are some data and one particularly telling figure comes from an FAO report from 2018. That year, global livestock production generated approximately 125 million metric tons of nitrogen in manure. However, only a relatively small share of this – around 27 million metric tons – was applied to cropland under controlled conditions. The remainder was deposited directly on pasture by grazing animals.

From there, the pathway to nutrient loss is often short. Through volatilization, runoff, and water flows, these nutrients are frequently transported into surrounding ecosystems and aquatic environments.

Paradoxically, vast amounts of energy and resources are invested in producing plant nutrients, while a significant share of those already present is lost. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that global losses of reactive nitrogen amount to approximately 80 percent annually.

Is it reasonable to allow all these efforts to culminate in something so systemically inefficient? Can we truly afford it?

The Problem Is Not the Product – It Is the System

In today’s agricultural systems, the majority of plant nutrient application still relies on broadcast spreading. This method involves dispersing mineral fertilizer granules or organic fertilizers evenly across the field, after which they are incorporated into the soil. While various technologies can assist farmers in applying the right amount at the right time, the method itself remains inherently imprecise. Some of the nutrients reach the crop – much of it does not.

As a result, only a portion is taken up by plants, while a significant share is lost before it can be utilized. Both nitrogen and phosphorus leak into aquatic environments, contributing to eutrophication. Nutrients that are not captured by the crop are broken down, transformed, and ultimately leave the system as losses to soil, water, and air.

Recent research also suggests that high levels of readily available plant nutrients – such as those found in mineral fertilizers – may, in some cases, affect soil microbial communities and alter the interactions between plants and microorganisms (see, for example, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-024-01079-1). This, in turn, may influence the plant’s ability to mobilize nutrients and micronutrients from the soil. As a result, key functions related to stress tolerance, disease resistance, and overall resilience may be weakened, potentially increasing the system’s long-term dependence on external inputs.

This is not a simple dichotomy between different types of fertilizers or biological solutions. Rather, it illustrates that a system optimized solely for rapid nutrient delivery and short-term yield response may, over time, become both less efficient and less resilient.

From Simple Input to Biological Optimization

How we conceptualize plant nutrients reflects how we understand agriculture more broadly. Today, they are often treated as inputs – something to be optimized for maximum yield per hectare, per animal, or per unit of feed. Volume becomes the primary measure of success.

The solution, then, appears straightforward: secure supply, optimize application rates, and keep costs in proportion to output.

But if we instead view plant nutrients as part of a larger cycle, the question changes fundamentally. It is no longer only about how much we apply, but about how well the system functions as a whole – how the soil performs, how and when nutrients are taken up, what is retained, and what is lost.

At that point, the issue is no longer merely one of fertilizers. It becomes a matter of perspective – a shift in how we understand and manage each part of the whole system

Feeding the Soil, Not Just the Crop

Precision agriculture is not new. Yet its potential remains far from fully realized. The next major shift may not lie solely in ever more advanced technologies for input application, but in combining precision with a deeper understanding of what is happening in the soil itself.

This does not imply less science – nor a romanticized view of agriculture. Quite the opposite. There is a growing area of research focused on the rhizosphere – the root zone – where interactions among plants, soil, and microorganisms take place, and where nutrient flows converge. As our understanding of these processes deepens, new opportunities emerge: for plant breeding that better leverages these interactions, for more precise nutrient management strategies, and, potentially, for the development of new materials and products better aligned with plant and soil biological functions.

This also raises broader questions. Is it possible to restore weakened biological functions in the soil? Can nutrient systems be developed that both sustain high yields and strengthen the soil’s inherent capacity to cycle nutrients? This is likely to be one of the most compelling areas of research and innovation in the future of agriculture.

The Next Major Shift Begins Here

Perhaps it is precisely here that the next agricultural revolution will take shape – not in a single product, but in a new way of understanding what truly makes plant nutrients effective. Achieving this will require greater knowledge, better tools, and a deeper understanding of the interactions among plants, soil, and microbiology. But it will also require research, innovation, and practical application – solutions that work in real-world conditions, on farms, in markets, and across the food system.

This is where Axfoundation’s approach is particularly relevant. Theory alone is not enough. What is needed are testbeds, pilot projects, and collaboration among actors across the entire value chain. From soil to table, more stakeholders will need to share both responsibility and risk, if we are to build a plant nutrient system that is productive, circular, and resilient.

Sustainable plant nutrition in the future is not about choosing between productivity and environmental stewardship. It is about designing smarter systems – systems that minimize losses, use resources more efficiently, and strengthen the biological functions upon which long-term food production ultimately depends. This is a transition that must begin now. Without plant nutrients, there are no harvests. But without a more intelligent plant nutrient system, there can be no sustainable future for food.

/Marit Wirén Toll, Project Manager Future Food, Axfoundation